Why the Wizards should pass on Alex Sarr
While the Michael Winger/Will Dawkins-led brain trust is notorious for keeping things close to the vest, all indications point to the Washington Wizards selecting Alex Sarr with the #2 overall pick in Wednesday’s NBA Draft. Wizards Twitter seems universally onboard with the 7’1” Frenchman, as he offers a unique combination of size, mobility, and skill. I am more lukewarm on the long-term outlook.
The natural projection of Sarr right off the bat is a spacing 5 — a player who gives everyone else room to breathe on offense while also serving as the anchor on the other end. Think Brook Lopez or Myles Turner.
Sarr was also given more latitude on offense with Perth than these guys.
In this play below, Sarr starts by setting a pindown for #11 (Bryce Cotton) and then attacks the closeout generated when Cotton cuts backdoor.
And this version has an upgraded defensive versatility bag.
An extremely sought out and valuable archetype…it’s not hard to see the appeal. However, Alex Sarr’s impact on the court does not match his enchanting attributes. Let’s dig in.
Even though Sarr spends most of his time on the perimeter, he was not treated as a shooting threat in Australia’s NBL (sponsored by Hungry Jack’s).
The Wildcats’ offense granted him many opportunities to bomb, and many a time the flow became stifled.
This is a two-part case: 1) his defender (#22 Will Magnay) gaps hard off him one pass away, and 2) Magnay lays off him on the handoff which allows #1 (Jordon Crawford) to chase hard (because the potential of a backdoor cut is eliminated).
Watching Sarr dribble against a cushion was maddening when he clearly has the touch and range to punish it. How long before he learns that he’s plowing his head through a brick wall?
On the defensive end, Sarr showed little aptitude for guarding pick-and-roll actions as a big man.
No feinting, no high hands, no disruption, a fruitless block attempt — all too common sights with Alex Sarr at the backline.
On more aggressive coverages, guards routinely turned the corner against Sarr.
While he flashed inspiring quickness, ground coverage, and length (enough where the hope is he grows into an ample switch guy), Sarr was prone to being wrong-footed on switches. He’s not a particularly fluid mover as of now and it showed against the top perimeter players in Australia.
Here on the switch against #25 (Milton Doyle), Sarr doesn’t open up enough when attempting to meet Doyle at the spot on his drive, and he gains a half step as a result — it’s all about angles.
It’s to be expected that Alex Sarr would struggle for large swathes of the game with Perth — after all, he was a teenager playing professional basketball. He’s still so early in his development. It’s ok if he’s not a precocious defender like say, an Evan Mobley. However, there were too many warning signs about his overall feel for the game to ignore. It goes deeper than just technique or play calling. (He’s actually pretty heady when it comes to nuances like pre-switching or “SCRAM” switching).
An apt description for Sarr could be that he’s always “the reactor” instead of “the actor.” There are just too many moments where’s he’s in position but leaves no imprint on the action.
Why is that? I think much of it is anticipation. Here’s a cut-and-dry example.
But to take it further, I believe that Sarr’s anticipation of spatial awareness is lacking — i.e. “I can’t see the other players, but where do I expect them to be and what do I expect them to do?”
Here’s an example of what I mean. With a pass like this, it’s exceedingly likely that his man (#6 William Hickey) is cutting backdoor. Yet instead of turning his hips towards the baseline to meet Hickey, Sarr turns like he’s going to sprint to the corner.
In this transition play, watch how late Sarr is to locate the man filling the corner once the center streaking the lane gets picked up.
Relatedly, Sarr’s timing for disrupting the opponent seems off-kilter. There were many instances of little guards sneaking layups around him at the rim.
Or undersized, ground-bound centers getting buckets in the post.
These moments may seem small, but to me they are too striking to ignore and amplify my defensive concerns several notches.
This could be a hand-eye coordination issue too, as Sarr had lots of trouble corralling quick interior passes from his Perth teammates.
Perhaps the biggest disappointment about Sarr’s game is how quickly (or better yet, how slowly) he gets off the ground. It seeps through in all facets of the ball.
Combine this with a nonexistent element of physicality, and it comes to light why Alex Sarr didn’t have a ton of *wow* athletic plays in the NBL. It’s shame too, as his motor runs hot unlike many young big man prospects.
This also explains why Sarr was such a lousy play finisher on non-dunks. It seems like he almost always either a) get bumped off the spot,
b) get heavily contested due to subpar quick leaping,
or c) loses the ball when extending.
This problem likely isn’t going away until Sarr adds some sort of 1-2 step (which goes back to the jumping and the physicality) to his interior package. With a clear lane and full of steam it’s pretty breathtaking.
Putting this all together, you can see my concern for drafting him at #2 overall. We can marvel at the theory of Alex Sarr, but what if there’s something missing? And that *something* (feel for the game) goes a long way into determining possessions, quarters, games, wins versus losses. Yes, pattern recognition can improve with time and experience, but instincts are by definition innate — either you have them or you don’t.
That said, I’m not completely out on Sarr, I wouldn’t be devastated by the selection (like I was with Rui Hachimura in 2019 and Corey Kispert in 2021). At 7’1”, Sarr’s margin for error is through the roof. Merely figuring out things a bit would pay huge dividends towards becoming an impactful player — even if he’ll always look goofy every now and then.
The Frenchman’s movement skills give him an out to masquerade as a jumbo wing should the defense never meaningfully progress. This would just put more pressure on his jump shot and offensive decision-making. For all the feel concerns, Sarr demonstrated very good court mapping in the NBL.
Can Sarr play the 4 in the league? I can’t see why not, at least for spurts. Obi Toppin averaged 20 minutes a game for an Eastern Conference finalist for crying out loud. But this is just a safety net against the big-time bust outcomes — if Sarr isn’t a true center then picking him in the top-three makes zero sense.
Another reason why I’m not totally down on Sarr is that the outlines are apparent of the most valuable skill in the NBA: shot-creation.
Squint hard enough…and the makings of something are there.
What if Alex Sarr becomes such a prolific scorer from the mid-post and floater range that all of his flaws pale in comparison? As we’ve seen in Denver, Philadelphia, and Oklahoma City, these aren’t really shots that modern NBA defenses are designed to cover. The free throw numbers may beg otherwise (65.3% across the last three seasons, though he did shoot 80.0% over the final 23 games in Australia ), but I believe Sarr has the touch to construct this into a viable weapon. And at his size and release point, nobody is ever bothering it.
Sarr’s ball skills also manifest on his drives. These forays weren’t effective in the NBL, but how many seven-footers have this kind of speed and agility with the ball?
The talent just oozes, particularly in transition.
Will Alex Sarr eventually mature into a focal point of an offense? The odds are against it, but the fact that we are even asking this question shows why the Wizards should consider him at #2 overall.
At the end of the day, I don’t envision Sarr becoming a player who thrives in dynamic situations. Whichever team he lands with will always be hampered by his shortcomings. And right now the NBA learning curve is going to sweep him up if he’s not tucked into an extremely narrow/defined role.
Let him explore the studio space? (i.e. putting the ball in his hands and let him sink or swim). As we saw in 2023–24 with rookie Bilal, that’s not realistic for a franchise looking to both build a culture and nurture the trade value of the proud vets at the same time.
So what are we looking at with Alex Sarr? A few attainable player comps (on the high end) could be Jabari Smith Jr. or Myles Turner. In this draft, that’s a decent snag at #2 even considering the bust potential. I just believe far more in another prospect sitting on the board, one who the Wizards will rue passing on. Stay tuned…